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OpenAI要让AI替代“初级投行员工”_我的网站
一 | Last week, the predominantly conservative US Supreme Court overruled the precedent established by the Roe v. Wade and decided that states may regulate the practice of abortion. The Roe v. Wade decision upheld pregnant women’s right to seek an abortion without government restrictions. A decision in the 1992 case of Planned Parenthood v. Casey largely upheld the Roe ruling.,Effect on Midterms,In November, US citizens will go to the polls in what will be the first midterm election of the Joe Biden administration as well as a referendum of sorts on the current US president's performance. The Republicans have been projected to win back the House of Representatives and the Senate as well, as the public has been increasingly frustrated by the issues such as inflation, crime, education and jobs. The recent ruling, however, could potentially give the democrats a shot in the arm by generating excitement among their voters.,"It will certainly galvanize the Democrats' base, for sure, it will help them to raise campaign funds and it may - perhaps - make some races more difficult for Republicans, especially in the suburbs among women voters," Robert Singh, a professor of politics at Birkbeck, University of London, said, adding that most voters will still be focused on other issues and he still expects the Republicans to win both houses of the Congress.,This sentiment was echoed by Ziad Munson, a sociology professor and the chair of the department of sociology and anthropology at Lehigh University in Pennsylvania, who also warned that the effect of the decision can be overstated.,"A consistent finding in political science over the last several decades is that the abortion issue, while a potent ideological symbol, seldom is a key policy issue for voters when they cast their votes," Munson explained.,Andrew Wroe, a senior lecturer in American politics at the University of Kent, agreed as well that the issue should help the Democrats, citing the effectiveness of the Republican use of cultural issues for rallying their base.,"The Democratic Party has been less successful in prosecuting the Culture Wars, but this is its great opportunity. Whether it will use it well is a different question, however," Wroe suggested.,At the same time, Christopher Kaczor, the chair of the philosophy department at Loyola Marymount University, is doubtful about the abortion issue having an impact on the US political landscape and helping Democrats to excite their voters.,"I expect that the very small minority of people for whom abortion is the key issue, on both sides, will be energized by this decision, but for most people other political and economic issues will remain more important," Kaczor stated.,New Wave of Protests?,The Supreme Court's decision has triggered a strong reaction on both sides of the issue in the United States, with hundreds of protesters, pro-life and pro-choice, gathering outside the Supreme Court last week following the decision. After the ruling, protests broke out in various US cities, showing a possibility of a nationwide backlash.,"People are angry, distraught, and ready to mobilise. It is difficult to say precisely how long the protests will persist, but it is likely to be some considerable time, given the magnitude of the policy change and the direct and indirect effects it will have on millions of people's lives," Wroe said.,Meanwhile, other experts expressed skepticism regarding the possibility of nationwide protests, including Munson, who drew attention to the fact that "the conservative majority tested for this possibility when they agreed not to stay the implementation of the Texas S.B. 8 law [also known as the Texas Heartbeat Act that bans abortion after detection of an unborn child's heartbeat] earlier this year.","Allowing that law to go into effect was the Court's political trial balloon, and it showed that widespread outrage quickly quieted down after just a few days. The outrage following the formal overturning of Roe v. Wade will last longer, but it is not likely to lead to large-scale consequential protest activity," the sociologist said.,Man Charged With Attempted Murder of LAPD Officers Amid Roe v Wade Protests26 June, 14:51 GMT,Who Judges the Justices?,Over the years, the role of courts in the US social and political life has greatly increased, with the Supreme Court becoming the final arbiter on many hot-button issues, such as same-sex marriage, gun control and abortion. This has been a prominent talking point among conservatives, who have been claiming that this practice undermines the country's constitutional principles, while liberals have been appealing to the notion of the courts standing up for human rights as well as drawing attention to the conservative movement's efforts to train and promote judges who share its principles.,"Both liberals and conservatives have always been supportive of judicial activism, they just want the judiciary to be activist in promoting the issues or outcomes that their side prefers. This despite the fact that conservatives have used 'judicial activism' as a talking point for some time," Munson pointed out.,Kaczor, for his part, drew a distinction between the original Roe decision and the Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization, insisting that the latter actually corrects a case of judicial activism.,"The Dobbs decision is not accurately portrayed as a case of judicial activism, but rather as the reversal of judicial activism. It was Roe that established a constitutional right for abortion that had no basis in the text, history, or structure of the constitution. The decision of Dobbs undoes this judicial activism," he stated.,Nevertheless, the ruling by the current Supreme Court, which has three justices picked up by former President Donald Trump from a list compiled by the conservative legal organization Federalist Society, is likely to have the Democrats sour on the Supreme Court.,"Democrats are increasingly likely to start talking about illegitimate policy making by the Supreme Court. They will start to complain about judicial activism. But, as noted above, they can use these arguments to mobilize their base and to argue for urgency of electing more Democrats to the Senate, which of course must ratify presidential appointments to the Court," Wroe said, adding that the Democrats can also "begin to legitimately argue that the Senate has an in-built Republican advantage that needs to be addressed via constitutional change.",According to Singh, any Democratic nominee for the 2024 presidential race will face the pressure to commit to enlarging and reforming the Supreme Court.,"Whether that happens, though, is another matter. I doubt the Democrats will have sufficient seats in the Senate to overcome a GOP filibuster of court reform proposals. But the fact that the conservatives number six now on the Court sets up an on-going problem for Democrats, and more conflict to come," Singh concluded.。
二 | 人工智能公司OpenAI正在进行一项非同寻常的试验：通过雇佣超100名前投资银行员工，训练其AI模型掌握金融建模等核心技能。 据媒体10月22日报道，OpenAI这项代号为“Mercury”的秘密项目，已经吸引了来自摩根大通、摩根士丹利和高盛集团等顶尖金融机构的前员工参与。这些参与者负责编写指令、构建用于重组和首次公开募股（IPO）等各类交易的金融模型，以此“教导”AI如何像一名初级银行家一样工作。 报道援引知情人士透露，这些合同工的时薪为150美元，并且获得了他们正在帮助创建的AI的早期使用权。这一举动在金融行业内部引发了对初级岗位职业前景的担忧，分析师们长期以来抱怨工作繁重乏味，而人工智能的崛起正将这种抱怨转变为对其工作安全性的直接威胁。 此举也揭示了Sam Altman领导下的OpenAI的战略重心。作为全球估值最高的初创公司之一，OpenAI尚未实现盈利，将强大的AI技术转化为能服务于金融、咨询、法律等各行各业的实用商业工具，已成为其当务之急。 一、百余名前员工参与，时薪150美元训练AI 根据报道，OpenAI的“Mercury”项目已招募了超过100名具有华尔街背景的专业人士。参与者阵容强大，不仅包括曾在摩根大通、摩根士丹利、高盛等一线投行工作过的前员工，还囊括了来自Brookfield Corp.、Mubadala Investment Co.、Evercore Inc.和KKR & Co.等知名投资机构的人才，甚至还有哈佛大学和麻省理工学院的在读MBA学生。 项目以灵活的合同工形式运作，参与者被要求每周提交一个金融模型。他们的任务包括用简单的语言编写提示，然后在微软的Excel程序中执行并构建模型。
三 | 一位审阅人会对其工作提供反馈，参与者需在修正所有问题后，其成果才会被最终输入OpenAI的系统。
四 | OpenAI的一位发言人表示，公司与“众多领域的专家合作，以改进和评估我们模型的能力”，并称这些专家由第三方供应商招募、管理和支付报酬。 值得注意的是，该项目的申请流程几乎没有人为干预。申请过程包括与AI聊天机器人进行的约20分钟面试、一项财务报表知识测试以及最后的建模能力测试。
五 | 二、“请修复”：AI需要学会的细节与格式 投行初级分析师以其超长的工作时间闻名，在处理实时交易时，每周工作超过80小时是家常便饭。
六 | 他们的工作充满了大量被视为“脏活累活”的任务，例如在Excel中构建复杂的并购模型，以及根据上级要求反复修改PPT演示文稿。
七 | 在彭博专栏作家Matt Levine看来，这种对细节的极致追求，恰恰是AI需要学习的关键。他评论道，一名成功的投行分析师必须是“注重细节的”，因为模型或演示文稿中一个微小的格式错误，比如美元符号未对齐，都会让上司怀疑其中可能存在更严重的实质性错误，从而破坏信任。 Levine将目前的生成式AI比作“聪明但粗心的分析师”——它们能迅速产出看似合理的模型，但往往会出错或出现“幻觉”，无法被完全信任。因此，他认为OpenAI的项目本质上是一种“强化学习”，相当于“让一位投行副总裁对着AI吼上几年，直到它把格式做对为止”。雇佣前银行家正是看中了他们自身已经历过这种严苛的训练，能够本能地遵循页边距大小、百分比斜体等行业格式规范。 三、替代学徒？华尔街晋升模式面临考验 “Mercury”项目的直接目标是让AI替代初级员工的工作，这引发了对投资银行传统学徒制模式未来的深刻质疑。数十年来，华尔街依赖于一个金字塔结构：初级分析师通过处理基础工作来学习技能，其中最优秀的一部分人最终晋升为需要与客户打交道的高级银行家。 正如Matt Levine所提出的问题：当一个行业不再需要学徒时，它未来的高级合伙人将从何而来？如果AI接管了模型构建和文书工作，年轻的金融专业人士将如何获得必要的实战经验和行业知识，以成长为未来的领导者？ 不过，这一趋势也存在另一面。
八 | 投资银行分析师项目的流动率一直很高，许多人在工作两年后便选择离开，投身于创业或其他行业。对于这些已经离开的人来说，回来训练一个可以替代自己当年岗位的机器人，或许并没有太多心理负担。 “Mercury”项目不仅是华尔街的潜在颠覆者，更是OpenAI商业化战略的缩影。通过将目标锁定在金融服务这一利润丰厚的领域，OpenAI正努力证明其技术在复杂企业环境中的价值。 尽管估值高昂，但OpenAI尚未盈利的现实，正驱使其积极开拓企业市场。将AI能力应用于特定行业、解决具体的业务痛点，被视为其实现收入增长和长期发展的关键路径。
九 | 该项目表明，OpenAI的雄心不止于通用的聊天机器人，而是要打造能够深度嵌入企业工作流程的专业级AI工具，从而在全球商业版图中占据一席之地。 本文来自：华尔街见闻，作者：张雅琦。
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